MEXICO.. WHAT ARE THE REAL INDICATORS?

If you have followed the past few years of my postings on the Middle East, then you will understand my desire to keep topics simplistic and to the point.

I'm not out to write a book on Mexico.

I have no intention of becoming yet another paid "talking head"!

Mexico is a concern for two basic reasons.

1. I am a firm believer that the Hispanic, nuclear family culture is more than conducive to the long term survival of the United States.  A demographic that has a culture of hard work that is nearly second to none!

2.  The fate of Mexico, like it or not, rest in the hands of the American people.

Those who wish to only abuse the common working people of Mexico will force those same people into the arms of our enemies possibly leading to confrontational environment between the US and Mexico.   If you don't believe this is possible, then you need only look at Mexico during the 2nd World War.

Having stated why I believe what I believe, let me get down to the details of what is taking place in Mexico and where it could all be heading.

As I have done with events in the Middle East, I will concentrate my comments on daily or nearly daily events in Mexico and how they relate to the overall "trends" taking place there.

Ok, let's get down to it.

What is the most dangerous event currently taking place in Mexico?

 Is it the attempted breakup / reorganization of the Pemex or the Teacher's Union?

Is it the business model of chasing the never-ending drug trade?

Is it the Mexican government's perceived inability to perform true governance for the nation? (Perception is nearly reality)!

Is it the threat of the US's enemies leveraging Mexico to the point of being a complete distraction for  the US's dwindling attention and resources?

Yep, you guessed it... it's all of the above!

As I commented in my opening post on Mexico, one of the most disastrous actions those who trade with Mexico can possibly make is to judge Mexico's "health" by pure economic indicators.

Having made that statement, I realize I better be ready to give an opinion of what should be considered optional indicators.

Now, I've seen countless indicator charts, power point slides, briefings ect ....ect... on what leadership should be "concerned about" and honestly, by the time I've finished digesting all the data, I'm not sure what I am lead to believe.

Drowning in "data"; its an all too common condition of predictive analysis.

So, where do I draw my opinions from?

When the Mexican media in no longer able or willing to cover the true events in Mexico, there is only one other place to go.

You guessed it!!! Social Media.

Is that a reliable "Source" of information?

Well, it depends on who you ask.

Ask a member of " I am 132" in Mexico City and see what answer you get.

So what part of social media interest me?

Comments!

Stories and postings on sites are of value, but the comments sections provide me with an acceptable level of awareness; my opinion!

Are they logical and accurate?

Often the answer is no, but that's not always what I'm looking for.

If I read thirty comments on one posting of an event, I can guarantee you I will have a better understanding of what impact that particular event could be having on that region of Mexico.

Remember; trends.... trends are the key in a modern day Social networking world!

I could go on and on, but the bottom line is this.

The regional "pulse" of critical areas in Mexico is far more important than Department of Commerce "indicators".

Finally; On my next post, I will get down to the real detailed work.

What is taking place in Mexico and where?

What is the possible impact to the US?

Here is my hint.... I don't follow DTOs and their actions. 

They are nothing more than a symptom of what is going wrong in Mexico.

Follow the "good people" and what they are willing to do to change the hell they are living in.

That is where the important events are taking place.